There has to be a discussion on Nuclear demands of India and its consequences, before actually the day comes when India’s PM signs Nuclear deal with G8 nations.

India is not as rich / developed nation when compared to the US, and we all know US always had an upper hand when it comes to decision in various International conferences, let it be G8, G5 or any other summit. For India, Nuclear deal is very important at this stage (my personal opinion) -

- India is the second fastest growing economy in the region after China, and we all know China has recently enhanced its Navy depolyment in Arabian Sea and its Nuclear weapon expenditure / depolyment. Not signing nuclear deal will not help India, since India falls far behind China on Nuclear weapon technology / volume front. It is strategically important for India to get a bigger shoulder from someone like the US.

- India’s GDP is little less tha $1,000 billion and we are growing at 7-8% YoY, given the Crude is heated to $140 levels, it is difficult for small companies in India to compete with their Chinese and Asian counterparts. Crude will certainly show its impact on private Oil companies and energy companies and growth will be hampered to a good extend in coming quarters. Nuclear energy will help India to maintain 8% growth rate, and will also help Crude to cool off in India (which happens to be among the biggest consumer market in South Asia) and in the region.

- States like Orrisa, eastern Maharashtra, Eastern MP need more power plants, and growing population should correlate to that. However, our country does not have a better mechanism, other than nuclear energy. It is high time for India, which is among the fastest grwoing nation to replace coal plants to nuclear power plants as soon as possible.

- In a sea, a small fish cannot survive unless it has big crocodiles its friends, India cannot survive, if sanctions are imposed like US has done to Iran.

US being an international leader – given it always had a big say when in all major world issues. When it comes to Global warming and pollution US has been a bigger fish polluting the pond. The G8 meeting, however, will only end up with nations shouting against US, but nothing will happen eventually (US emits 4 times more harmful gases than China, on a per capita basis).
India, presently, is not in a condition to bear sanctions from US and UN-bodies, given we are heavily dependent on them.
- US has the biggest stake {~27%} in Indian exports.
- US ’s FII has biggest stake in Indian capital markets {~16%)
Nuclear deal in its present form will hamper India’s Nuclear weapon program, but that can be scarificed, given we will get shoulder of a bigger nation, which could help, India strategically in the region.

Global warming and pollution is bigger issue, but unfortunately double standards by developed nations dosent help India, lets take it this way, India has to choose between bad and worse, I believe I would go for bad than worse (A personal opinion).

Vivek Misra

Markets are extremly volatile ahead of decision on oil prices in India (I guess by today evening there will be some news), I wonder if the Government agrees to increase Oil prices given the crude level heating everyday.
I heard a Fund manager, and his views were real eye opener when he started with the current situation which will only be worsen if nothing is done any soon. He proposed these three points to help Oil biggies, and help them not loosing single penny in coming days -
1. Rise in petrol prices upto 50% (Current fair price is 78 INR / L – with Crude at $135)
2. LPG prices should be doubled
3. Kerosene Oil / its derivatives should see a 3.0-3.5 times rise from current levels.

If Government takes any steps to increase prices of these commodities, Inflation will rise exponentially, which will force RBI to hike CRR further, and India’s 8% growth story will become a dream. However, there is a section of people who have the view that crude might come down to $90 levels by the end of Fiscal 2008, which seems impossible (my personal opinion), given Olympics in China – Oil demand will be huge, and China has recently increased its stake in Oil consumption biggies after the US. (US consumes 25% of each 100 barrel of Crude)

India had a good growth story in 2007, however, the Government of our country has a bigger role when it comes to the factors which will hamper our growth – we all know growth has a direct correlation with employement in any nation. Given we have a huge population, which is increasing at a faster rate (faster than 7% growth ateast), at this growth rate, we will be having a huge number of unemployed youth in next few years.
No offense to PM, but he is taking India no where, lets summarize this month’s events
- Rs 2 hike in petrol
- Farmer loan waiver – 71,000 Cr
- China relief package – 1 billion (proposed)

We are sitting on 4% Fiscal deficit, Crude price will make the deficit even more, and we will be helping China with another billion, when it is known that China has recently increased its Oil consumption – for its new Navy troops? My personal opinion is China has become a big threat to south Asian countries, and its rising Oil consumption and increased Capital infusion in Navy have created imbalance in the region.

The Oil Secy has proposed 10 Rs rise in petrol, which is minimum to save Oil biggies, it gives me shiver when I think, IOC, HPCL, BPCL will shut down petrol pumps in metros next month, if this continues.

Vivek Misra