India’s Nuclear deal and its consequences

There has to be a discussion on Nuclear demands of India and its consequences, before actually the day comes when India’s PM signs Nuclear deal with G8 nations.

India is not as rich / developed nation when compared to the US, and we all know US always had an upper hand when it comes to decision in various International conferences, let it be G8, G5 or any other summit. For India, Nuclear deal is very important at this stage (my personal opinion) -

- India is the second fastest growing economy in the region after China, and we all know China has recently enhanced its Navy depolyment in Arabian Sea and its Nuclear weapon expenditure / depolyment. Not signing nuclear deal will not help India, since India falls far behind China on Nuclear weapon technology / volume front. It is strategically important for India to get a bigger shoulder from someone like the US.

- India’s GDP is little less tha $1,000 billion and we are growing at 7-8% YoY, given the Crude is heated to $140 levels, it is difficult for small companies in India to compete with their Chinese and Asian counterparts. Crude will certainly show its impact on private Oil companies and energy companies and growth will be hampered to a good extend in coming quarters. Nuclear energy will help India to maintain 8% growth rate, and will also help Crude to cool off in India (which happens to be among the biggest consumer market in South Asia) and in the region.

- States like Orrisa, eastern Maharashtra, Eastern MP need more power plants, and growing population should correlate to that. However, our country does not have a better mechanism, other than nuclear energy. It is high time for India, which is among the fastest grwoing nation to replace coal plants to nuclear power plants as soon as possible.

- In a sea, a small fish cannot survive unless it has big crocodiles its friends, India cannot survive, if sanctions are imposed like US has done to Iran.

US being an international leader - given it always had a big say when in all major world issues. When it comes to Global warming and pollution US has been a bigger fish polluting the pond. The G8 meeting, however, will only end up with nations shouting against US, but nothing will happen eventually (US emits 4 times more harmful gases than China, on a per capita basis).
India, presently, is not in a condition to bear sanctions from US and UN-bodies, given we are heavily dependent on them.
- US has the biggest stake {~27%} in Indian exports.
- US ’s FII has biggest stake in Indian capital markets {~16%)
Nuclear deal in its present form will hamper India’s Nuclear weapon program, but that can be scarificed, given we will get shoulder of a bigger nation, which could help, India strategically in the region.

Global warming and pollution is bigger issue, but unfortunately double standards by developed nations dosent help India, lets take it this way, India has to choose between bad and worse, I believe I would go for bad than worse (A personal opinion).

Vivek Misra

…false friendship

Life is so un-believable, at times the situation is so difficult that it becomes even more difficult to imagine that it happened with me! Yesterday I was thinking about the best friend I had, I use to believe blindly on everything which was told to me, however, i never ever dreamed in my worst dream that i will be told false so many times. Anyways, everyone has its own way of living life, its own way of doing things, but false hurts, it hurts even more when you have blind faith in someone.

However, I learned a lesson, will not be able to trust anyone, i know my best friend will also be reading this blog, which is the reason I wrote this up. I will never send a call on the number I have, which i got some 2 months back.

I remember i once said a false thing to my friend, but then I said that becauseI had the fear in back of my mind, that I might loose the friendship, but however, I never realised how many times I had been told false for what reasons I didn’t know!!

Anyways, people - please ignore this post, I wrote this blog for a person, who knows that my name still gets most hits on Google search.

Vivek Misra

Global Warming - Contribution of developed nations!

When it comes to enviroment, developed nations have double standards, nuclear non proliferation deal is one example. On an average the United States does around 36,000+ nuclear tests every year, which is far more than any country, however CTBT and NPT has different norms for other nations. I wonder how many sea animals are killed every year when such a huge number of tests are conducted, if even 1% of these are conducted in sea, and not on ground.

China is not far behind when it comes to pollution, the crude oil consumption is second largest when it comes to China after the US. (US eats up 25% of Crude). US leaders always blame south asia for pollution, inflation, consumption of food and all other things (terrorism as well !). Deos anyone know what was the immediate need for US to invade Afganistan, the war destroyed whole nation, just to catch someone who was blamed for 9/11. The war expenditure was huge, obviously people died on both sides, which is a different thing, apart from that, huge money flew away from the US, which could had been used to build a whole new country, better than what we have presently. Today when US economy is on the brim of recession and everything seems slowing down, inflation is at higher side, US un-employed data is at all time high, banks going bankcrupt..and so many other things going side-by-side. I imagine if there was no war in last 5 years, it could had been a differnt story altogether.

Enviroment is for everyone and not for some specific nation, it dosent make sense that people in US have all the fun and facilities and population in south asia is always blamed for all mis-happenings and bear sanctions for that.

Vivek Misra

New city, new developments :)

Last week was special for me…was with Mom and my brother, enjoyed a lot!! However, the last weekend was even more special, it was pleasant weather in Mumbai and we (Mom and me) decided to go for Pune (a city nearby), after a long drive we were in Pune, it was already noon by then. it was our lucky day, it didn’t rain on Sunday…but even when it was not raining, it was little difficult for us to understand the coordinates of the new city. However, after 2 hrs of travelling in the city, we reached the place. It happens with me always, when i think happiness is near, it suddenly goes far away from me, but still it gives me a smile!

I am looking forward to new developments in my life, hoping something turns out soon

Vivek Misra

Soaring Inflation in India - Hard times ahead!

Inflation depends on two major factors - Fiscal policy and Monetary policy, the latter is government driven - In India there was no major drought in any state, we have ample of resources, Uttar Pradesh had huge Sugar production, wheat production is excellent this year, Industry growth has been steady (slower in March- April), but even then Central government was unable to optimize the resources, it had. I expect no great change if any new political party comes to power, we should thank our stars that no Political party gets clear majority in center, atleast the ruling party has a fear that it might fall, for the blunders they have been doing.

On the contrary, in China’s Fiscal policy by the Central bank is strongly related to their monetary policy, Crude consumption in China is huge when compared to India - or for that matter South Asian nations, even then China has a better growth story, the Inflation in China dosent hurt people there, they have several sanctions from West nations, but still they have survived and have become a major power after the US. US might invade Iran, given they have elections coming up soon, and it will provide Bush’s Republican party more votes in coming elections. Although when it seems democrates have an edge over them. However, the demand of crude has increased exponentially and so is global inflation in last 6 months. If US invades Iran, demand in Crude will rise further in middle east and in the US as well.

It is foolish on the part of Indian government to distribute subsidy everytime they see given Industry in trouble. For example - when dollar weakend last year and rupee was around 39-38.50, Textile owners / exporters in delhi started crying for their business, and now when dollar is again strong against rupee at 43-43.5, why Government is still giving subsidy to them? The reason being election in 6 states, and general elections coming up, the UPA grovernment has to woo the voters.

The turmoil started when on Friday - Morgan Stanley published an official report that Crude will trade at $150 levels by July 4th (I dont know how they published date ! ), anyways as soon as the report got out Capital markets in the US slipped downside, with Crude heated at $140 levels.
Atleast for this week, it is very dificult for the markets to recover, for Nifty 4450 is crucial level, from which it re-bounded in Jan this year, if it closes below that level, markets will set to make new lows in coming days!
CRR hike is also on cards for RBI - 8.24% Inflation is not a comfort zone for UPA government and they will create pressure for RBI to hike CRR, which will suck remaining liquidity from markets.

Crude price heated up: What India should do!

Markets are extremly volatile ahead of decision on oil prices in India (I guess by today evening there will be some news), I wonder if the Government agrees to increase Oil prices given the crude level heating everyday.
I heard a Fund manager, and his views were real eye opener when he started with the current situation which will only be worsen if nothing is done any soon. He proposed these three points to help Oil biggies, and help them not loosing single penny in coming days -
1. Rise in petrol prices upto 50% (Current fair price is 78 INR / L - with Crude at $135)
2. LPG prices should be doubled
3. Kerosene Oil / its derivatives should see a 3.0-3.5 times rise from current levels.

If Government takes any steps to increase prices of these commodities, Inflation will rise exponentially, which will force RBI to hike CRR further, and India’s 8% growth story will become a dream. However, there is a section of people who have the view that crude might come down to $90 levels by the end of Fiscal 2008, which seems impossible (my personal opinion), given Olympics in China - Oil demand will be huge, and China has recently increased its stake in Oil consumption biggies after the US. (US consumes 25% of each 100 barrel of Crude)

India had a good growth story in 2007, however, the Government of our country has a bigger role when it comes to the factors which will hamper our growth - we all know growth has a direct correlation with employement in any nation. Given we have a huge population, which is increasing at a faster rate (faster than 7% growth ateast), at this growth rate, we will be having a huge number of unemployed youth in next few years.
No offense to PM, but he is taking India no where, lets summarize this month’s events
- Rs 2 hike in petrol
- Farmer loan waiver - 71,000 Cr
- China relief package - 1 billion (proposed)

We are sitting on 4% Fiscal deficit, Crude price will make the deficit even more, and we will be helping China with another billion, when it is known that China has recently increased its Oil consumption - for its new Navy troops? My personal opinion is China has become a big threat to south Asian countries, and its rising Oil consumption and increased Capital infusion in Navy have created imbalance in the region.

The Oil Secy has proposed 10 Rs rise in petrol, which is minimum to save Oil biggies, it gives me shiver when I think, IOC, HPCL, BPCL will shut down petrol pumps in metros next month, if this continues.

Vivek Misra

…never fool me again

Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, You gave it away
This year, to save me from tears
I’ll give it to someone special

Once bitten and twice shy
I keep my distance but you still catch my eye
Tell me do you recognise me?
Well it’s been a year, it doesn’t surprise me

(Happy Christmas!) I wrapped it up and sent it
With a note saying “I Love You” I meant it
Now I know what a fool I’ve been
But if you kissed me now I know you’d fool me again

A crowded room, friends with tired eyes
I’m hiding from you and your soul of ice
My God I thought you were someone to rely on
Me? I guess I was a shoulder to cry on
A face on a lover with a fire in his heart
A man undercover but you tore me apart
Now I’ve found a real love you’ll never fool me again

This was sung by George Michael long back, but looks like he sung it for me!

Vivek Misra

Truth: Stranger than fiction!

A couple of weeks back i got a call from someone….I least expected, I know at times i get really emotional when I think of my college days. I had a close friend who use to love a girl….she was far far away from him, but the love was so true between them….the distance never came into picture. The guy was not from a rich family nor the girl. They use to save money to call each other…they had so many dreams in their eyes for the coming future, they had thought of.

IIT is among the best institutions in Asia, placements were real good when compared to other colleges in India or for that matter even in Asia (some parts of it). The guy got into a good institution and he tried his best to get her in his life, but all attempts were in vain. Last year it was when both died, and everything finished off….the dreams…the future…I dont know if the feeling they share also perished, I dont think so…it is still alive.

Looks like a I have just written a paragraph from some fiction book….dosent matter how many of you believe in this…but its true.

Truth at times, is stranger than fiction.

Vivek Misra

The most scariest and violent movie you have ever seen!!

One of the most scary movie that I had seen is Cannibal Holocaust….I remember I had fever the other day, didnt had food that night. The movie is banned in several nations for obvious reasons…I wonder if anyone will have this movie in his/her personal collection of movies. Personally I wont call it a movie, I would rather call it a video, which has horrified scences in every 10 minutes. Believe me, you can’t tolerate few of the clips in the movie.

There are various other movies which can have some space in this catagory of movies, SAW series win by some margin, but for sure it falls far away from Cannibal Holocaust, if you compare the violent clips it has. There is a good description on various public portals which have their own way of describing the movie.

As far as I am concerned after watching that movie, (it has been good 3 years now)…I have lost the taste for horror movies, I find myself more inclined towards Animations and Comedy movies…if I could name the best movie I have seen…Shrek series could easily be the best among all.

Vivek Misra

Biggest Technological achievement in past 100 years!

To name a few inventions in past 100 years which have changed the living standard of today’s human…and helped human race to climb on new challenges

1. Electricity - No one in this modern world could imagine life without electricity, imagine a city without electricity for a week, will be back to stone age, where no television, no news, no work, no transportation, no entertainment, and to an extend no food (Lol)

2. Cell Phones - The invention of cell phones made the world a smaller place to live, I cant imagine my life without phones, I wonder how people use to wait for letters from far ends, for weeks and months.. Graham Bell gave us telephones, which is now the most widely used equipment across.

3. Computers & Internet - As far as I am concerned, for me life without Internet is like living in darkness, Computers were invented before I was born, but Internet came into existence in 1995, I was in 8th standard then, Internet has surely made everything so easy, especially for bankers like me!

4. Nuclear energy - We all know how people have used this invention to the worst, believe me Nuclear energy has far better implications, it is one source which can be utilized to lighten so many villages in Africa. I read somewhere that if the US and Europe (the big Five nations) could shed a fraction of their Nuclear energy (used for bombs and weapons of mass destruction) to South Asian developing countries, electricity will be cheaper, and may be oil prices would come down from the peak….where they are now.

5. Aeroplanes - Some 200 years back, I dont know if someone in its wildest dream had ever thougt that there will be a flying machine which could carry 1,000 people at 85,000 ft height and could travel at an speed of 1100+ kms/hr (speed of sound 330 m/sec). It is a wonderful achievement…may be because it has reduced the distance (time) between me and my home.

Vivek Misra